It is the pattern shell . php that is triggering the 403 error. shell . php is a script which hackers can put onto the server using some domains insecure script and use to further try to compromise the system. tmp is usually the first place they put the script because that partition is the easiest place to handle the files since all users on the server have access to tmp.
Unless we know exactly what scripts are running at all times and know that they are kept updated to close security holes as they are discovered (which is impossible) I have to depend on mod_security to block insecure scripts from being used to hack the servers. What happens is, someone runs a search at google for a known insecure script. Finds it and uses it to upload files to the server. mod_security has taken instances of scripts being abused on all of our servers from about one a day, to zero in a year. We use a whole laundry list of mod_security rules, many of which can be found here:
http://www.gotroot.com/downloads/ftp...ity/rules.conf
(but we don't use all of them).
More about the firewall can be found here
http://www.gotroot.com/tiki-index.ph...security+rules
Its an indispensible tool for keeping the servers secure.